Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
The Baltic states vs RussiaEstonia, Latvia and Lithuania with Poland behind them.
If Russia and Belarus attacked Lithuania, Latvia and 2 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 27 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusLithuania, Latvia and 2 others
1,148,000Active soldiers231,700
2,300,000Reservists200,000
3,500Tanks610
6,000Artillery870
1,160Combat aircraft100
850Helicopters200
$131.0bnDefence budget$45.4bn
153.2mPopulation43.2m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
3,819
soldiers killed or wounded
38
tanks destroyed
61
aircraft lost
+14
areas of land gained
68%
support at home, at the end
Lithuania, Latvia and 2 others
defended
1,188
soldiers killed or wounded
8
tanks destroyed
10
aircraft lost
−14
areas of land lost
83%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia and Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 170,993 vs 29,725.
02
Deployed combat power helped Russia and Belarus
Average deployed combat power: 192 vs 75 model units.
03
Air situation helped Russia and Belarus
Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 66%.
04
Political cohesion helped Lithuania, Latvia and 2 others
Average cohesion: 68% vs 84%.
05
Logistics helped Russia and Belarus
Average front-line supply efficiency: 81% vs 70%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
DAY 26
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
Lithuania vs Latvia
Defender holds after 365 days
Poland vs Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
After 27 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and Lithuania + Latvia + Estonia + ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 3,819 (Russia + Belarus) and 1,188 (Lithuania + Latvia + Estonia +). The model identified 2 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.