🇷🇺 Russiavs🇧🇾 BelarusMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Russia attacked Belarus today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days.
How the two militaries compare
Russia keeps 23 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has 6.0 times the tanks. Russia has 18 times the combat aircraft. Russia spends 130 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaBelarus
1,100,000Active soldiers48,000
2,000,000Reservists300,000
3,000Tanks500
5,000Artillery1,000
1,100Combat aircraft60
800Helicopters50
$130.0bnDefence budget$1.0bn
144.0mPopulation9.2m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
12,094
soldiers killed or wounded
99
tanks destroyed
208
aircraft lost
+73
areas of land gained
62%
support at home, at the end
Belarus
defended
2,862
soldiers killed or wounded
37
tanks destroyed
30
aircraft lost
−73
areas of land lost
27%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 173 vs 15 model units.
02
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 858,764 vs 97,240.
03
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 85%.
04
Political cohesion helped Russia
Average cohesion: 65% vs 41%.
05
Logistics helped Belarus
Average front-line supply efficiency: 49% vs 53%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Belarus: a combination of local factors.
DAY 27
Belarus signals openness to talks
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: original objectives look unachievable.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 151 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Belarus ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 12,094 (Russia) and 2,862 (Belarus). The model identified 2 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.