🇷🇺 Russiavs🇫🇮 FinlandMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Russia attacked Finland today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days.
How the two militaries compare
Russia keeps 46 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has 15 times the tanks. Russia has 18 times the combat aircraft. Russia spends 19 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaFinland
1,100,000Active soldiers24,000
2,000,000Reservists870,000
3,000Tanks200
5,000Artillery700
1,100Combat aircraft62
800Helicopters20
$130.0bnDefence budget$7.0bn
144.0mPopulation5.6m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
17,118
soldiers killed or wounded
116
tanks destroyed
230
aircraft lost
+82
areas of land gained
67%
support at home, at the end
Finland
defended
2,171
soldiers killed or wounded
17
tanks destroyed
40
aircraft lost
−82
areas of land lost
64%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 1,114,466 vs 96,697.
02
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 213 vs 22 model units.
03
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 84%.
04
Political cohesion helped Finland
Average cohesion: 71% vs 89%.
05
Logistics helped Russia
Average front-line supply efficiency: 46% vs 41%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Finland: a combination of local factors.
DAY 100
Supply crisis for Russia
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: overextended supply lines.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 185 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Finland ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 17,118 (Russia) and 2,171 (Finland). The model identified 2 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.