Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
The Nordic countries vs RussiaFinland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark on the northern flank.
If Russia attacked Sweden, Finland and 3 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 361 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaSweden, Finland and 3 others
1,100,000Active soldiers89,000
2,000,000Reservists990,000
3,000Tanks405
5,000Artillery800
1,100Combat aircraft252
800Helicopters130
$130.0bnDefence budget$35.0bn
144.0mPopulation28.0m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
42,807
soldiers killed or wounded
158
tanks destroyed
563
aircraft lost
+17
areas of land gained
43%
support at home, at the end
Sweden, Finland and 3 others
defended
7,680
soldiers killed or wounded
42
tanks destroyed
210
aircraft lost
−17
areas of land lost
78%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 2,235,662 vs 295,704.
02
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 208 vs 36 model units.
03
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 78%.
04
Political cohesion helped Sweden, Finland and 3 others
Average cohesion: 56% vs 84%.
05
Economic resilience helped Russia
Average economic stability index: 0.95 vs 0.87.
The moments that decided it
DAY 187
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: a combination of local factors.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
Russia vs Norway
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
Russia vs Poland
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
After 361 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Sweden + Finland + Norway + ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 42,807 (Russia) and 7,680 (Sweden + Finland + Norway +). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.