🇷🇺 Russiavs🇵🇱 PolandMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Russia attacked Poland today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Partial objective achieved after 365 days.
How the two militaries compare
Russia keeps 5.5 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has 5.0 times the tanks. Russia has 11 times the combat aircraft. Russia spends 3.3 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaPoland
1,100,000Active soldiers200,000
2,000,000Reservists100,000
3,000Tanks600
5,000Artillery700
1,100Combat aircraft100
800Helicopters200
$130.0bnDefence budget$40.0bn
144.0mPopulation37.0m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
66,411
soldiers killed or wounded
421
tanks destroyed
432
aircraft lost
+43
areas of land gained
25%
support at home, at the end
Poland
defended
17,904
soldiers killed or wounded
98
tanks destroyed
90
aircraft lost
−43
areas of land lost
54%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 2,177,920 vs 93,553.
02
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 82%.
03
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 241 vs 62 model units.
04
Political cohesion helped Poland
Average cohesion: 48% vs 66%.
05
Logistics helped Poland
Average front-line supply efficiency: 59% vs 68%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 81
Warsaw under threat
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: a deep advance.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Poland ended with: Partial objective achieved (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 66,411 (Russia) and 17,904 (Poland). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.