🇵🇱 Polandvs🇱🇹 LithuaniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Poland attacked Lithuania today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days.
How the two militaries compare
Poland keeps 13 times as many soldiers under arms. Poland has 60 times the tanks. Poland has combat aircraft and Lithuania has none. Poland spends 16 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
PolandLithuania
200,000Active soldiers16,000
100,000Reservists30,000
600Tanks10
700Artillery60
100Combat aircraft0
200Helicopters0
$40.0bnDefence budget$2.5bn
37.0mPopulation2.9m
What the war cost
Poland
attacked
5,276
soldiers killed or wounded
33
tanks destroyed
28
aircraft lost
+18
areas of land gained
78%
support at home, at the end
Lithuania
defended
952
soldiers killed or wounded
1
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−18
areas of land lost
61%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Poland
Reservists mobilised: 262,293 vs 15,953.
02
Deployed combat power helped Poland
Average deployed combat power: 53 vs 7 model units.
03
Air situation helped Poland
Average share of air control for Poland: 78%.
04
Logistics helped Lithuania
Average front-line supply efficiency: 48% vs 72%.
05
Economic resilience helped Poland
Average economic stability index: 0.98 vs 0.96.
The moments that decided it
DAY 188
Vilnius falls
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Poland: a sustained offensive.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 188 simulated days the conflict between Poland and Lithuania ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 5,276 (Poland) and 952 (Lithuania). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.