Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇩🇪 GermanyMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Poland attacked Germany today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Defender holds after 360 days.

How the two militaries compare

Poland and Germany field armies of a similar size. Poland has 2.0 times the tanks. Germany has 2.2 times the combat aircraft. Germany spends 2.3 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

PolandGermany
200,000Active soldiers182,000
100,000Reservists35,000
600Tanks300
700Artillery150
100Combat aircraft220
200Helicopters250
$40.0bnDefence budget$90.0bn
37.0mPopulation84.0m

What the war cost

Poland
attacked
9,999
soldiers killed or wounded
43
tanks destroyed
89
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
43%
support at home, at the end
Germany
defended
9,939
soldiers killed or wounded
57
tanks destroyed
198
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
41%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Poland
Reservists mobilised: 496,132 vs 34,651.
02
Logistics helped Germany
Average front-line supply efficiency: 40% vs 96%.
03
Air situation helped Germany
Average share of air control for Poland: 39%.
04
Political cohesion helped Poland
Average cohesion: 67% vs 59%.
05
Deployed combat power helped Germany
Average deployed combat power: 46 vs 50 model units.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇧🇪 Belgium
Ceasefire, front frozen after 316 days
🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇨🇿 Czechia
Side A achieves its objectives after 176 days
🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇨🇿 Czechia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 362 days
🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇩🇰 Denmark
Side A achieves its objectives after 96 days
🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇱🇹 Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
All matchups →
After 360 simulated days the conflict between Poland and Germany ended with: Defender holds (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 9,999 (Poland) and 9,939 (Germany). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.