🇵🇱 Polandvs🇧🇾 BelarusMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Poland attacked Belarus today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days.
How the two militaries compare
Poland keeps 4.2 times as many soldiers under arms. Poland has 1.2 times the tanks. Poland has 1.7 times the combat aircraft. Poland spends 40 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
PolandBelarus
200,000Active soldiers48,000
100,000Reservists300,000
600Tanks500
700Artillery1,000
100Combat aircraft60
200Helicopters50
$40.0bnDefence budget$1.0bn
37.0mPopulation9.2m
What the war cost
Poland
attacked
9,989
soldiers killed or wounded
65
tanks destroyed
37
aircraft lost
+41
areas of land gained
71%
support at home, at the end
Belarus
defended
5,144
soldiers killed or wounded
56
tanks destroyed
31
aircraft lost
−41
areas of land lost
32%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Deployed combat power helped Poland
Average deployed combat power: 50 vs 14 model units.
02
Air situation helped Poland
Average share of air control for Poland: 73%.
03
Mobilisation helped Poland
Reservists mobilised: 238,762 vs 112,319.
04
Political cohesion helped Poland
Average cohesion: 75% vs 45%.
05
Logistics helped Poland
Average front-line supply efficiency: 72% vs 44%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 27
Supply crisis for Belarus
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Poland: opposing air interdiction of supply routes.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 181 simulated days the conflict between Poland and Belarus ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 9,989 (Poland) and 5,144 (Belarus). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.