🇺🇦 Ukrainevs🇧🇾 BelarusMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Ukraine attacked Belarus today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days.
How the two militaries compare
Ukraine keeps 19 times as many soldiers under arms. Ukraine has 1.8 times the tanks. Ukraine has 1.3 times the combat aircraft. Ukraine spends 40 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
UkraineBelarus
900,000Active soldiers48,000
500,000Reservists300,000
900Tanks500
2,000Artillery1,000
80Combat aircraft60
60Helicopters50
$40.0bnDefence budget$1.0bn
33.0mPopulation9.2m
What the war cost
Ukraine
attacked
11,502
soldiers killed or wounded
38
tanks destroyed
25
aircraft lost
+67
areas of land gained
82%
support at home, at the end
Belarus
defended
3,036
soldiers killed or wounded
46
tanks destroyed
28
aircraft lost
−67
areas of land lost
37%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Deployed combat power helped Ukraine
Average deployed combat power: 157 vs 18 model units.
02
Mobilisation helped Ukraine
Reservists mobilised: 616,253 vs 91,557.
03
Air situation helped Ukraine
Average share of air control for Ukraine: 74%.
04
Political cohesion helped Ukraine
Average cohesion: 85% vs 49%.
05
Logistics helped Ukraine
Average front-line supply efficiency: 49% vs 46%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Belarus: a combination of local factors.
DAY 63
Supply crisis for Ukraine
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Ukraine: overextended supply lines.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 145 simulated days the conflict between Ukraine and Belarus ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 11,502 (Ukraine) and 3,036 (Belarus). The model identified 2 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.