Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇧🇾 Belarus vs 🇱🇻 LatviaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Belarus attacked Latvia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 334 days.

How the two militaries compare

Belarus keeps 6.0 times as many soldiers under arms. Belarus has tanks and Latvia has none. Belarus has combat aircraft and Latvia has none. Latvia spends 1.5 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

BelarusLatvia
48,000Active soldiers8,000
300,000Reservists30,000
500Tanks0
1,000Artillery50
60Combat aircraft0
50Helicopters0
$1.0bnDefence budget$1.5bn
9.2mPopulation1.9m

What the war cost

Belarus
attacked
3,733
soldiers killed or wounded
33
tanks destroyed
42
aircraft lost
+2
areas of land gained
35%
support at home, at the end
Latvia
defended
824
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−2
areas of land lost
60%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 205,349 vs 31,376.
02
Deployed combat power helped Belarus
Average deployed combat power: 14 vs 5 model units.
03
Air situation helped Belarus
Average share of air control for Belarus: 67%.
04
Political cohesion helped Latvia
Average cohesion: 48% vs 78%.
05
Economic resilience helped Belarus
Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.75.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
🇺🇦 Ukraine vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days
🇱🇹 Lithuania vs 🇱🇻 Latvia
Defender holds after 365 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇱🇻 Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
🇧🇾 Belarus vs 🇱🇹 Lithuania
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
All matchups →
After 334 simulated days the conflict between Belarus and Latvia ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 3,733 (Belarus) and 824 (Latvia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.