Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇧🇾 Belarus vs 🇱🇹 LithuaniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Belarus attacked Lithuania today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Partial objective achieved after 365 days.

How the two militaries compare

Belarus keeps 3.0 times as many soldiers under arms. Belarus has 50 times the tanks. Belarus has combat aircraft and Lithuania has none. Lithuania spends 2.5 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

BelarusLithuania
48,000Active soldiers16,000
300,000Reservists30,000
500Tanks10
1,000Artillery60
60Combat aircraft0
50Helicopters0
$1.0bnDefence budget$2.5bn
9.2mPopulation2.9m

What the war cost

Belarus
attacked
6,797
soldiers killed or wounded
71
tanks destroyed
43
aircraft lost
+4
areas of land gained
23%
support at home, at the end
Lithuania
defended
1,464
soldiers killed or wounded
1
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−4
areas of land lost
51%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 232,565 vs 22,661.
02
Deployed combat power helped Belarus
Average deployed combat power: 17 vs 8 model units.
03
Political cohesion helped Lithuania
Average cohesion: 40% vs 74%.
04
Air situation helped Belarus
Average share of air control for Belarus: 63%.
05
Economic resilience helped Belarus
Average economic stability index: 0.93 vs 0.71.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
🇺🇦 Ukraine vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days
🇱🇹 Lithuania vs 🇱🇻 Latvia
Defender holds after 365 days
🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇱🇹 Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
🇧🇾 Belarus vs 🇱🇻 Latvia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 334 days
All matchups →
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Belarus and Lithuania ended with: Partial objective achieved (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 6,797 (Belarus) and 1,464 (Lithuania). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.