Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
Lithuania vs LatviaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Lithuania attacked Latvia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Defender holds after 365 days.
How the two sides compare
Lithuania keeps 2.4 times as many soldiers under arms. Lithuania spends 2.1 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
LithuaniaLatvia
16,100Active soldiers6,600
12,950Reservists16,000
0Tanks0
60Artillery50
0Combat aircraft0
0Helicopters4
$3.8bnDefence budget$1.8bn
2.9mPopulation1.8m
What the war cost
Lithuania
attacked
2,402
soldiers killed or wounded
1
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
60%
support at home, at the end
Latvia
defended
992
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
69%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Lithuania
Reservists mobilised: 57,377 vs 25,488.
02
Deployed combat power helped Lithuania
Average deployed combat power: 7 vs 6 model units.
03
Air situation helped Lithuania
Average share of air control for Lithuania: 55%.
04
Political cohesion helped Latvia
Average cohesion: 74% vs 78%.
05
Economic resilience helped Lithuania
Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.94.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Poland vs Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
Belarus vs Latvia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 334 days
Belarus vs Lithuania
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
Latvia vs Estonia
Defender holds after 365 days
Russia vs Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 48 days
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Lithuania and Latvia ended with: Defender holds (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 2,402 (Lithuania) and 992 (Latvia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.