🇷🇺 Russiavs🇱🇻 LatviaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Russia attacked Latvia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days.
How the two militaries compare
Russia keeps 138 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has tanks and Latvia has none. Russia has combat aircraft and Latvia has none. Russia spends 87 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaLatvia
1,100,000Active soldiers8,000
2,000,000Reservists30,000
3,000Tanks0
5,000Artillery50
1,100Combat aircraft0
800Helicopters0
$130.0bnDefence budget$1.5bn
144.0mPopulation1.9m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
2,764
soldiers killed or wounded
21
tanks destroyed
72
aircraft lost
+36
areas of land gained
70%
support at home, at the end
Latvia
defended
283
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−36
areas of land lost
60%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 285,347 vs 7,691.
02
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 177 vs 5 model units.
03
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 86%.
04
Long-range strikes helped Russia
Final logistics degradation from strikes: 0% (Russia) vs 12% (Latvia); interception rates 78% / 30%.
05
Political cohesion helped Latvia
Average cohesion: 69% vs 79%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 23
Supply crisis for Russia
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: overextended supply lines.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 49 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Latvia ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 2,764 (Russia) and 283 (Latvia). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.