🇷🇺Russiavs🇪🇪EstoniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Russia attacked Estonia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days.
How the two sides compare
Russia keeps 178 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has tanks and Estonia has none. Russia has combat aircraft and Estonia has none. Russia spends 112 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaEstonia
1,264,000Active soldiers7,100
1,500,000Reservists41,200
5,750Tanks0
5,000Artillery60
1,517Combat aircraft0
800Helicopters3
$179.3bnDefence budget$1.6bn
143.5mPopulation1.4m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
2,021
soldiers killed or wounded
19
tanks destroyed
45
aircraft lost
+26
areas of land gained
66%
support at home, at the end
Estonia
defended
205
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−26
areas of land lost
64%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 191,641 vs 6,235.
02
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 145 vs 5 model units.
03
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 87%.
04
Political cohesion helped Estonia
Average cohesion: 66% vs 81%.
05
Logistics helped Estonia
Average front-line supply efficiency: 62% vs 69%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 19
Tallinn under threat
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: a deep advance.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 34 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Estonia ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 2,021 (Russia) and 205 (Estonia). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.