🇷🇺Russiavs🇱🇹LithuaniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Russia attacked Lithuania today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 48 days.
How the two sides compare
Russia keeps 79 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has tanks and Lithuania has none. Russia has combat aircraft and Lithuania has none. Russia spends 47 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaLithuania
1,264,000Active soldiers16,100
1,500,000Reservists12,950
5,750Tanks0
5,000Artillery60
1,517Combat aircraft0
800Helicopters0
$179.3bnDefence budget$3.8bn
143.5mPopulation2.9m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
2,120
soldiers killed or wounded
20
tanks destroyed
67
aircraft lost
+39
areas of land gained
75%
support at home, at the end
Lithuania
defended
268
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−39
areas of land lost
71%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 275,621 vs 7,688.
02
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 156 vs 7 model units.
03
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 85%.
04
Political cohesion helped Lithuania
Average cohesion: 74% vs 89%.
05
Logistics helped Lithuania
Average front-line supply efficiency: 56% vs 59%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 18
Supply crisis for Lithuania
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: opposing air interdiction of supply routes.
DAY 40
Supply crisis for Lithuania
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia: opposing air interdiction of supply routes.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 48 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Lithuania ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 2,120 (Russia) and 268 (Lithuania). The model identified 2 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.