Russia, Belarus vs Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden: Side A achieves its objectives
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden; the model ends in side a achieves its objectives after 55 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Nato increases Black Sea deployment amid escalating deadly Russian attacks (The Guardian · World)
- Russia’s naval posture in the Mediterranean has ‘significantly decreased’: NATO official (Breaking Defense)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Side A achieves its objectives after 55 simulated days (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 11,318 for Russia + Belarus and 3,232 for Poland + Estonia + Latvia +.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then contested front from day 25, then opening offensive from day 29.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
- Day 27: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
- Day 37: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Poland + Estonia + Latvia +: a combination of local factors.
- Day 55: Turning point: Vilnius falls. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a sustained offensive.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 22,484.
- Long-range strikes (favoured Side B): Final logistics degradation from strikes: 59% (Russia + Belarus) vs 0% (Poland + Estonia + Latvia +); interception rates 35% / 72%.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 358,401 vs 115,570.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side A): Average deployed combat power: 253 vs 135 model units.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 69% vs 80%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days.
- Russia vs Estonia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 34 days.
- Russia vs Finland: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 185 days.
- Russia vs Latvia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 49 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Nato increases Black Sea deployment amid escalating deadly Russian attacks (The Guardian · World)
- Russia’s naval posture in the Mediterranean has ‘significantly decreased’: NATO official (Breaking Defense)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.