Russia, Belarus vs Germany, Poland: Side A achieves its objectives after 241 days
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Germany, Poland; the model ends in side a achieves its objectives after 241 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Germany, Poland in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Side A achieves its objectives after 241 simulated days (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 74,507 for Russia + Belarus and 22,132 for Germany + Poland.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then contested front from day 4, then attrition phase from day 13, then stalemate from day 27, then attrition phase from day 29.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Germany + Poland: a combination of local factors.
- Day 39: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Germany + Poland: a combination of local factors.
What decided it
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 1,619,178 vs 122,884.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 76%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side A): Average deployed combat power: 254 vs 108 model units.
- Logistics (favoured Side A): Average front-line supply efficiency: 82% vs 68%.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.97 vs 0.86.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days.
- Russia vs Poland: the model ended that one in partial objective achieved after 365 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.