Russia, Belarus vs Ukraine: Military stalemate after 365 days
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Ukraine; the model ends in military stalemate after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Ukraine in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Military stalemate after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 131,585 for Russia + Belarus and 52,517 for Ukraine.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then contested front from day 240, then stalemate from day 243.
Turning points:
- The engine detected no turning points in this run.
What decided it
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,819,656 vs 428,779.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 83%.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 63% vs 85%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side A): Average deployed combat power: 306 vs 232 model units.
- Logistics (favoured Side B): Average front-line supply efficiency: 59% vs 61%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Ukraine vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days.
- Russia vs Ukraine: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 304 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.