Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇺🇦 UkraineMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Russia attacked Ukraine today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 304 days.

How the two militaries compare

Russia keeps 1.2 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has 3.3 times the tanks. Russia has 14 times the combat aircraft. Russia spends 3.3 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

RussiaUkraine
1,100,000Active soldiers900,000
2,000,000Reservists500,000
3,000Tanks900
5,000Artillery2,000
1,100Combat aircraft80
800Helicopters60
$130.0bnDefence budget$40.0bn
144.0mPopulation33.0m

What the war cost

Russia
attacked
119,378
soldiers killed or wounded
553
tanks destroyed
452
aircraft lost
+3
areas of land gained
39%
support at home, at the end
Ukraine
defended
55,702
soldiers killed or wounded
72
tanks destroyed
61
aircraft lost
−3
areas of land lost
81%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 1,807,755 vs 372,635.
02
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 77%.
03
Political cohesion helped Ukraine
Average cohesion: 58% vs 85%.
04
Deployed combat power helped Ukraine
Average deployed combat power: 196 vs 309 model units.
05
Logistics helped Russia
Average front-line supply efficiency: 62% vs 59%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
🇺🇦 Ukraine vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇪🇪 Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇫🇮 Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇱🇻 Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇳🇴 Norway
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
All matchups →
After 304 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 119,378 (Russia) and 55,702 (Ukraine). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.