Bulgaria vs Ukraine: Defender holds after 249 days
In today's run Bulgaria attack Ukraine; the model ends in defender holds after 249 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Bulgaria attack Ukraine in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Defender holds after 249 simulated days (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 0 for Bulgaria and 0 for Ukraine.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then end state from day 249.
Turning points:
- The engine detected no turning points in this run.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side A): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 95,080 vs 0.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 8 vs 323 model units.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Bulgaria: 17%.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side B): Reservists mobilised: 118,390 vs 333,843.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 45% vs 75%.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.