Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
The Visegrád group vs RussiaPoland, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary standing together.
If Russia and Belarus attacked Poland, Hungary and 2 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 243 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusPoland, Hungary and 2 others
1,148,000Active soldiers288,000
2,300,000Reservists129,000
3,500Tanks740
6,000Artillery900
1,160Combat aircraft178
850Helicopters300
$131.0bnDefence budget$54.0bn
153.2mPopulation62.8m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
61,458
soldiers killed or wounded
404
tanks destroyed
438
aircraft lost
+57
areas of land gained
55%
support at home, at the end
Poland, Hungary and 2 others
defended
17,556
soldiers killed or wounded
88
tanks destroyed
121
aircraft lost
−57
areas of land lost
54%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia and Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 1,530,516 vs 105,793.
02
Air situation helped Russia and Belarus
Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 77%.
03
Deployed combat power helped Russia and Belarus
Average deployed combat power: 248 vs 99 model units.
04
Logistics helped Russia and Belarus
Average front-line supply efficiency: 82% vs 67%.
05
Political cohesion helped Poland, Hungary and 2 others
Average cohesion: 61% vs 68%.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Poland vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Poland vs Czechia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 362 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
Poland vs Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
After 243 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and Poland + Hungary + Czechia + ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 61,458 (Russia + Belarus) and 17,556 (Poland + Hungary + Czechia +). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.