Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇬🇷 GreeceMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Turkey attacked Greece today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Partial objective achieved after 365 days.

How the two militaries compare

Turkey keeps 2.7 times as many soldiers under arms. Turkey has 1.8 times the tanks. Their air forces are a similar size. Turkey spends 3.1 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

TurkeyGreece
355,000Active soldiers130,000
380,000Reservists220,000
2,200Tanks1,200
1,300Artillery900
200Combat aircraft200
500Helicopters200
$25.0bnDefence budget$8.0bn
86.0mPopulation10.4m

What the war cost

Turkey
attacked
37,127
soldiers killed or wounded
285
tanks destroyed
136
aircraft lost
+16
areas of land gained
34%
support at home, at the end
Greece
defended
16,933
soldiers killed or wounded
128
tanks destroyed
160
aircraft lost
−16
areas of land lost
40%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Turkey
Reservists mobilised: 852,534 vs 221,627.
02
Deployed combat power helped Turkey
Average deployed combat power: 125 vs 49 model units.
03
Air situation helped Turkey
Average share of air control for Turkey: 59%.
04
Economic resilience helped Turkey
Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.92.
05
Logistics helped Turkey
Average front-line supply efficiency: 91% vs 88%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇬🇷 Greece vs 🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 103 days
🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 152 days
🇬🇷 Greece vs 🇲🇰 North Macedonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 30 days
🇬🇷 Greece vs 🇦🇱 Albania
Side A achieves its objectives after 80 days
🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇦🇲 Armenia
Defender holds after 365 days
🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇬🇪 Georgia
Defender holds after 365 days
All matchups →
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Turkey and Greece ended with: Partial objective achieved (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 37,127 (Turkey) and 16,933 (Greece). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.