🇹🇷 Turkeyvs🇧🇬 BulgariaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Turkey attacked Bulgaria today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 152 days.
How the two militaries compare
Turkey keeps 13 times as many soldiers under arms. Turkey has 24 times the tanks. Turkey has 13 times the combat aircraft. Turkey spends 13 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
TurkeyBulgaria
355,000Active soldiers27,000
380,000Reservists3,000
2,200Tanks90
1,300Artillery200
200Combat aircraft15
500Helicopters30
$25.0bnDefence budget$2.0bn
86.0mPopulation6.5m
What the war cost
Turkey
attacked
5,421
soldiers killed or wounded
92
tanks destroyed
37
aircraft lost
+48
areas of land gained
60%
support at home, at the end
Bulgaria
defended
1,299
soldiers killed or wounded
6
tanks destroyed
7
aircraft lost
−48
areas of land lost
24%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Turkey
Reservists mobilised: 326,256 vs 1,873.
02
Deployed combat power helped Turkey
Average deployed combat power: 113 vs 6 model units.
03
Air situation helped Turkey
Average share of air control for Turkey: 82%.
04
Political cohesion helped Turkey
Average cohesion: 64% vs 41%.
05
Logistics helped Bulgaria
Average front-line supply efficiency: 45% vs 50%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 24
Supply crisis for Turkey
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Turkey: overextended supply lines.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 152 simulated days the conflict between Turkey and Bulgaria ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 5,421 (Turkey) and 1,299 (Bulgaria). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.