🇬🇷Greecevs🇧🇬BulgariaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Greece attacked Bulgaria today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 103 days.
How the two sides compare
Greece keeps 3.6 times as many soldiers under arms. Greece has 6.3 times the tanks. Greece has 12 times the combat aircraft. Greece spends 3.0 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
GreeceBulgaria
131,650Active soldiers36,950
264,500Reservists3,000
1,365Tanks215
900Artillery200
232Combat aircraft19
200Helicopters30
$8.1bnDefence budget$2.8bn
10.4mPopulation6.4m
What the war cost
Greece
attacked
3,770
soldiers killed or wounded
67
tanks destroyed
35
aircraft lost
+28
areas of land gained
57%
support at home, at the end
Bulgaria
defended
1,166
soldiers killed or wounded
5
tanks destroyed
5
aircraft lost
−28
areas of land lost
39%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Greece
Reservists mobilised: 111,343 vs 1,250.
02
Deployed combat power helped Greece
Average deployed combat power: 38 vs 7 model units.
03
Air situation helped Greece
Average share of air control for Greece: 79%.
04
Logistics helped Greece
Average front-line supply efficiency: 78% vs 48%.
05
Political cohesion helped Greece
Average cohesion: 59% vs 47%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 29
Sofia under threat
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Greece: a deep advance.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 103 simulated days the conflict between Greece and Bulgaria ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 3,770 (Greece) and 1,166 (Bulgaria). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.