🇬🇷Greecevs🇲🇰North MacedoniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If Greece attacked North Macedonia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 30 days.
How the two sides compare
Greece keeps 16 times as many soldiers under arms. Greece has 44 times the tanks. Greece has combat aircraft and North Macedonia has none. Greece spends 21 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
GreeceNorth Macedonia
131,650Active soldiers8,000
264,500Reservists4,850
1,365Tanks31
900Artillery50
232Combat aircraft0
200Helicopters10
$8.1bnDefence budget$0.4bn
10.4mPopulation1.8m
What the war cost
Greece
attacked
436
soldiers killed or wounded
13
tanks destroyed
7
aircraft lost
+13
areas of land gained
62%
support at home, at the end
North Macedonia
defended
142
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−13
areas of land lost
37%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Greece
Reservists mobilised: 29,892 vs 865.
02
Deployed combat power helped Greece
Average deployed combat power: 40 vs 2 model units.
03
Air situation helped Greece
Average share of air control for Greece: 85%.
04
Logistics helped Greece
Average front-line supply efficiency: 85% vs 72%.
05
Political cohesion helped Greece
Average cohesion: 62% vs 52%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 26
Supply crisis for North Macedonia
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Greece: opposing air interdiction of supply routes.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 30 simulated days the conflict between Greece and North Macedonia ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 436 (Greece) and 142 (North Macedonia). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.
Kosovo