Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

Bulgaria vs North MacedoniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Bulgaria attacked North Macedonia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 288 days.

How the two sides compare

Bulgaria keeps 4.6 times as many soldiers under arms. Bulgaria has 6.9 times the tanks. Bulgaria has combat aircraft and North Macedonia has none. Bulgaria spends 7.2 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

BulgariaNorth Macedonia
36,950Active soldiers8,000
3,000Reservists4,850
215Tanks31
200Artillery50
19Combat aircraft0
30Helicopters10
$2.8bnDefence budget$0.4bn
6.4mPopulation1.8m

What the war cost

Bulgaria
attacked
2,811
soldiers killed or wounded
10
tanks destroyed
10
aircraft lost
+3
areas of land gained
30%
support at home, at the end
North Macedonia
defended
480
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−3
areas of land lost
33%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Bulgaria
Reservists mobilised: 121,280 vs 4,298.
02
Deployed combat power helped Bulgaria
Average deployed combat power: 7 vs 2 model units.
03
Air situation helped Bulgaria
Average share of air control for Bulgaria: 71%.
04
Logistics helped Bulgaria
Average front-line supply efficiency: 90% vs 74%.
05
Political cohesion helped North Macedonia
Average cohesion: 42% vs 47%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

Greece vs Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 103 days
Romania vs Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 346 days
Turkey vs Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 152 days
Greece vs North Macedonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 30 days
Albania vs North Macedonia
Defender holds after 227 days
Bulgaria vs Serbia
Defender holds after 190 days
All matchups →
After 288 simulated days the conflict between Bulgaria and North Macedonia ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 2,811 (Bulgaria) and 480 (North Macedonia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.