Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇦🇲 ArmeniaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Turkey attacked Armenia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Defender holds after 365 days.

How the two militaries compare

Turkey keeps 8.3 times as many soldiers under arms. Turkey has 22 times the tanks. Turkey has 20 times the combat aircraft. Turkey spends 18 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

TurkeyArmenia
355,000Active soldiers43,000
380,000Reservists200,000
2,200Tanks100
1,300Artillery250
200Combat aircraft10
500Helicopters20
$25.0bnDefence budget$1.4bn
86.0mPopulation3.0m

What the war cost

Turkey
attacked
15,322
soldiers killed or wounded
113
tanks destroyed
97
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
47%
support at home, at the end
Armenia
defended
5,913
soldiers killed or wounded
8
tanks destroyed
8
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
37%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Deployed combat power helped Turkey
Average deployed combat power: 84 vs 12 model units.
02
Mobilisation helped Turkey
Reservists mobilised: 793,429 vs 180,927.
03
Air situation helped Turkey
Average share of air control for Turkey: 81%.
04
Logistics helped Armenia
Average front-line supply efficiency: 10% vs 67%.
05
Political cohesion helped Turkey
Average cohesion: 60% vs 49%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 152 days
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan vs 🇦🇲 Armenia
Defender holds after 365 days
🇦🇲 Armenia vs 🇬🇪 Georgia
Defender holds after 220 days
🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇬🇷 Greece
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇬🇪 Georgia
Defender holds after 365 days
All matchups →
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Turkey and Armenia ended with: Defender holds (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 15,322 (Turkey) and 5,913 (Armenia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.