Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇬🇪 GeorgiaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Turkey attacked Georgia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Defender holds after 365 days.

How the two militaries compare

Turkey keeps 9.6 times as many soldiers under arms. Turkey has 22 times the tanks. Turkey has 17 times the combat aircraft. Turkey spends 50 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

TurkeyGeorgia
355,000Active soldiers37,000
380,000Reservists20,000
2,200Tanks100
1,300Artillery200
200Combat aircraft12
500Helicopters20
$25.0bnDefence budget$0.5bn
86.0mPopulation3.7m

What the war cost

Turkey
attacked
14,824
soldiers killed or wounded
98
tanks destroyed
87
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
43%
support at home, at the end
Georgia
defended
1,759
soldiers killed or wounded
6
tanks destroyed
10
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
45%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Turkey
Reservists mobilised: 837,848 vs 19,086.
02
Deployed combat power helped Turkey
Average deployed combat power: 109 vs 10 model units.
03
Air situation helped Turkey
Average share of air control for Turkey: 84%.
04
Logistics helped Georgia
Average front-line supply efficiency: 35% vs 53%.
05
Economic resilience helped Turkey
Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.93.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 152 days
🇦🇲 Armenia vs 🇬🇪 Georgia
Defender holds after 220 days
🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇦🇲 Armenia
Defender holds after 365 days
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan vs 🇬🇪 Georgia
Defender holds after 365 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇬🇪 Georgia
Side A achieves its objectives after 141 days
🇹🇷 Turkey vs 🇬🇷 Greece
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
All matchups →
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Turkey and Georgia ended with: Defender holds (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 14,824 (Turkey) and 1,759 (Georgia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.