Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇬🇪 GeorgiaMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Russia attacked Georgia today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 141 days.

How the two militaries compare

Russia keeps 30 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has 30 times the tanks. Russia has 92 times the combat aircraft. Russia spends 260 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

RussiaGeorgia

1,100,000Active soldiers37,000

2,000,000Reservists20,000

3,000Tanks100

5,000Artillery200

1,100Combat aircraft12

800Helicopters20

$130.0bnDefence budget$0.5bn

144.0mPopulation3.7m

What the war cost

Russia

attacked

10,787

soldiers killed or wounded

tanks destroyed

181

aircraft lost

+23

areas of land gained

63%

support at home, at the end

Georgia

defended

1,066

soldiers killed or wounded

tanks destroyed

aircraft lost

−23

areas of land lost

32%

support at home, at the end

What decided it

Mobilisation helped Russia

Reservists mobilised: 874,238 vs 14,105.

Deployed combat power helped Russia

Average deployed combat power: 176 vs 10 model units.

Air situation helped Russia

Average share of air control for Russia: 85%.

Political cohesion helped Russia

Average cohesion: 67% vs 54%.

Logistics helped Georgia

Average front-line supply efficiency: 46% vs 56%.

Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇧🇾 Belarus

Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇪🇪 Estonia

Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇫🇮 Finland

Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇱🇻 Latvia

Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇳🇴 Norway

Partial objective achieved after 365 days

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇵🇱 Poland

Partial objective achieved after 365 days

All matchups →

After 141 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Georgia ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 10,787 (Russia) and 1,066 (Georgia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.