Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
Europe vs Russia, without the United StatesEuropean NATO members defending alone, with the United States staying out.
If Russia and Belarus attacked Turkey, France and 8 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 270 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusTurkey, France and 8 others
1,148,000Active soldiers1,608,000
2,300,000Reservists899,000
3,500Tanks5,560
6,000Artillery4,400
1,160Combat aircraft1,560
850Helicopters2,420
$131.0bnDefence budget$388.0bn
153.2mPopulation497.4m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
128,199
soldiers killed or wounded
776
tanks destroyed
837
aircraft lost
+1
areas of land gained
37%
support at home, at the end
Turkey, France and 8 others
defended
77,164
soldiers killed or wounded
711
tanks destroyed
1,047
aircraft lost
−1
areas of land lost
61%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Sea & air lift helped Turkey, France and 8 others
Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 669,457.
02
Mobilisation helped Russia and Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 1,806,414 vs 777,372.
03
Deployed combat power helped Turkey, France and 8 others
Average deployed combat power: 212 vs 329 model units.
04
Economic resilience helped Russia and Belarus
Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.82.
05
Air situation helped Turkey, France and 8 others
Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 43%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Turkey + France + Poland +: a combination of local factors.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Turkey vs Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 152 days
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
Russia vs Norway
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
After 270 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and Turkey + France + Poland + ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 128,199 (Russia + Belarus) and 77,164 (Turkey + France + Poland +). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.