Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
Poland and Germany vs RussiaThe two armies that would carry the central front, with nobody else joining.
If Russia and Belarus attacked Poland and Germany today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 350 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusPoland and Germany
1,148,000Active soldiers382,000
2,300,000Reservists135,000
3,500Tanks900
6,000Artillery850
1,160Combat aircraft320
850Helicopters450
$131.0bnDefence budget$130.0bn
153.2mPopulation121.0m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
97,861
soldiers killed or wounded
572
tanks destroyed
572
aircraft lost
+55
areas of land gained
41%
support at home, at the end
Poland and Germany
defended
27,168
soldiers killed or wounded
154
tanks destroyed
320
aircraft lost
−55
areas of land lost
40%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia and Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 2,197,747 vs 133,564.
02
Air situation helped Russia and Belarus
Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 78%.
03
Deployed combat power helped Russia and Belarus
Average deployed combat power: 258 vs 114 model units.
04
Economic resilience helped Russia and Belarus
Average economic stability index: 0.95 vs 0.79.
05
Logistics helped Russia and Belarus
Average front-line supply efficiency: 81% vs 68%.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Poland vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Poland vs Czechia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 362 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
Poland vs Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
After 350 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and Poland + Germany ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 97,861 (Russia + Belarus) and 27,168 (Poland + Germany). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.