Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
NATO vs RussiaThe full alliance, United States included, against Russia and Belarus.
If Russia and Belarus attacked United States, Turkey and 8 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Defender holds after 210 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusUnited States, Turkey and 8 others
1,148,000Active soldiers2,867,000
2,300,000Reservists1,693,000
3,500Tanks8,040
6,000Artillery5,850
1,160Combat aircraft4,210
850Helicopters7,360
$131.0bnDefence budget$1247.0bn
153.2mPopulation814.4m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
31,901
soldiers killed or wounded
260
tanks destroyed
723
aircraft lost
−15
areas of land lost
46%
support at home, at the end
United States, Turkey and 8 others
defended
53,660
soldiers killed or wounded
513
tanks destroyed
1,532
aircraft lost
+15
areas of land gained
59%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Sea & air lift helped United States, Turkey and 8 others
Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 1,428,867.
02
Deployed combat power helped United States, Turkey and 8 others
Average deployed combat power: 188 vs 592 model units.
03
Air situation helped United States, Turkey and 8 others
Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 29%.
04
Long-range strikes helped United States, Turkey and 8 others
Final logistics degradation from strikes: 0% (Russia + Belarus) vs 0% (United States + Turkey + France +); interception rates 0% / 0%.
05
Logistics helped United States, Turkey and 8 others
Average front-line supply efficiency: 63% vs 79%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Turkey + France +: a combination of local factors.
DAY 107
Supply crisis for Russia + Belarus
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Turkey + France +: opposing air interdiction of supply routes.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
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Russia vs Finland
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Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
Russia vs Norway
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
Russia vs Poland
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
After 210 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and United States + Turkey + France + ended with: Defender holds (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 31,901 (Russia + Belarus) and 53,660 (United States + Turkey + France +). The model identified 2 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.