Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
NATO's eastern flank vs RussiaThe frontline members from Finland down to Bulgaria, without the western half of the alliance.
If Russia and Belarus attacked Poland, Romania and 8 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 53 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusPoland, Romania and 8 others
1,148,000Active soldiers440,700
2,300,000Reservists1,157,000
3,500Tanks1,340
6,000Artillery2,670
1,160Combat aircraft295
850Helicopters410
$131.0bnDefence budget$76.4bn
153.2mPopulation100.1m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
11,478
soldiers killed or wounded
80
tanks destroyed
188
aircraft lost
+26
areas of land gained
68%
support at home, at the end
Poland, Romania and 8 others
defended
3,236
soldiers killed or wounded
23
tanks destroyed
64
aircraft lost
−26
areas of land lost
74%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Long-range strikes helped Poland, Romania and 8 others
Final logistics degradation from strikes: 59% (Russia + Belarus) vs 0% (Poland + Romania + Hungary +); interception rates 38% / 77%.
02
Mobilisation helped Russia and Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 353,992 vs 106,592.
03
Deployed combat power helped Russia and Belarus
Average deployed combat power: 258 vs 119 model units.
04
Air situation helped Russia and Belarus
Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 57%.
05
Logistics helped Russia and Belarus
Average front-line supply efficiency: 70% vs 59%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
DAY 28
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
DAY 38
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Poland + Romania + Hungary +: a combination of local factors.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Poland vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Poland vs Czechia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 362 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
Poland vs Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
After 53 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and Poland + Romania + Hungary + ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 11,478 (Russia + Belarus) and 3,236 (Poland + Romania + Hungary +). The model identified 4 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.