Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
The Joint Expeditionary Force vs RussiaBritain and the northern European signatories of the JEF.
If Russia and Belarus attacked United Kingdom, Netherlands and 8 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 25 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusUnited Kingdom, Netherlands and 8 others
1,148,000Active soldiers301,700
2,300,000Reservists1,126,000
3,500Tanks635
6,000Artillery1,110
1,160Combat aircraft462
850Helicopters440
$131.0bnDefence budget$136.4bn
153.2mPopulation120.2m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
3,500
soldiers killed or wounded
37
tanks destroyed
86
aircraft lost
+18
areas of land gained
70%
support at home, at the end
United Kingdom, Netherlands and 8 others
defended
722
soldiers killed or wounded
5
tanks destroyed
43
aircraft lost
−18
areas of land lost
80%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Sea & air lift helped United Kingdom, Netherlands and 8 others
Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 76,434.
02
Mobilisation helped Russia and Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 159,059 vs 48,117.
03
Deployed combat power helped Russia and Belarus
Average deployed combat power: 208 vs 66 model units.
04
Long-range strikes helped United Kingdom, Netherlands and 8 others
Final logistics degradation from strikes: 26% (Russia + Belarus) vs 0% (United Kingdom + Netherlands + Sweden +); interception rates 38% / 75%.
05
Air situation helped Russia and Belarus
Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 59%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United Kingdom + Netherlands + Sweden +: a combination of local factors.
DAY 23
Supply crisis for United Kingdom + Netherlands + Sweden +
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: overextended supply lines.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
United Kingdom vs Ireland
Side A achieves its objectives after 28 days
Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
Russia vs Norway
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
After 25 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and United Kingdom + Netherlands + Sweden + ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 3,500 (Russia + Belarus) and 722 (United Kingdom + Netherlands + Sweden +). The model identified 2 turning points. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.