🇬🇧 United Kingdomvs🇮🇪 IrelandMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight
If United Kingdom attacked Ireland today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Side A achieves its objectives after 28 days.
How the two militaries compare
United Kingdom keeps 19 times as many soldiers under arms. United Kingdom has tanks and Ireland has none. United Kingdom has combat aircraft and Ireland has none. United Kingdom spends 58 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
United KingdomIreland
140,000Active soldiers7,500
30,000Reservists2,000
200Tanks0
90Artillery20
160Combat aircraft0
250Helicopters6
$75.0bnDefence budget$1.3bn
68.0mPopulation5.2m
What the war cost
United Kingdom
attacked
476
soldiers killed or wounded
2
tanks destroyed
5
aircraft lost
+24
areas of land gained
78%
support at home, at the end
Ireland
defended
142
soldiers killed or wounded
0
tanks destroyed
0
aircraft lost
−24
areas of land lost
59%
support at home, at the end
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped United Kingdom
Reservists mobilised: 31,158 vs 332.
02
Deployed combat power helped United Kingdom
Average deployed combat power: 40 vs 2 model units.
03
Air situation helped United Kingdom
Average share of air control for United Kingdom: 85%.
04
Logistics helped United Kingdom
Average front-line supply efficiency: 92% vs 68%.
05
Political cohesion helped United Kingdom
Average cohesion: 78% vs 73%.
The moments that decided it
DAY 28
Dublin falls
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United Kingdom: a sustained offensive.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
After 28 simulated days the conflict between United Kingdom and Ireland ended with: Side A achieves its objectives (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 476 (United Kingdom) and 142 (Ireland). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.