Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
The European Union vs RussiaEvery EU member that can reach the front, against Russia and Belarus.
If Russia and Belarus attacked France, Poland and 8 others today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 305 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
Russia and BelarusFrance, Poland and 8 others
1,148,000Active soldiers1,181,000
2,300,000Reservists513,000
3,500Tanks3,270
6,000Artillery3,150
1,160Combat aircraft1,266
850Helicopters1,750
$131.0bnDefence budget$299.5bn
153.2mPopulation363.8m
What the war cost
Russia and Belarus
attacked
130,402
soldiers killed or wounded
759
tanks destroyed
841
aircraft lost
+6
areas of land gained
39%
support at home, at the end
France, Poland and 8 others
defended
75,305
soldiers killed or wounded
560
tanks destroyed
1,016
aircraft lost
−6
areas of land lost
63%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Sea & air lift helped France, Poland and 8 others
Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 299,059.
02
Mobilisation helped Russia and Belarus
Reservists mobilised: 1,895,443 vs 481,339.
03
Economic resilience helped Russia and Belarus
Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.81.
04
Political cohesion helped France, Poland and 8 others
Average cohesion: 55% vs 69%.
05
Deployed combat power helped France, Poland and 8 others
Average deployed combat power: 211 vs 256 model units.
The moments that decided it
DAY 12
a shift in momentum
This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward France + Poland + Germany +: a combination of local factors.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
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Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
Russia vs Norway
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Russia vs Poland
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
After 305 simulated days the conflict between Russia + Belarus and France + Poland + Germany + ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 130,402 (Russia + Belarus) and 75,305 (France + Poland + Germany +). The model identified 1 turning point. This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.