Russia, Belarus vs United States, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania: Narrow victory for United States
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack United States, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania; the model ends in narrow victory for united states + poland + estonia + after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Iranian MP tells Euronews Tehran's missiles will strike Europe if US uses its bases there (Euronews)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack United States, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States participates, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Narrow victory for United States + Poland + Estonia + after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 91,844 for Russia + Belarus and 45,485 for United States + Poland + Estonia +.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then contested front from day 97, then attrition phase from day 101.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Poland + Estonia +: a combination of local factors.
- Day 98: Turning point: Offensive slows in the central sector. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Poland + Estonia +: supply efficiency has fallen and the air situation has become contested.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 1,024,054.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,731,144 vs 986,551.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 27%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 317 vs 470 model units.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.95 vs 0.76.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days.
- Russia vs Estonia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 34 days.
- Russia vs Finland: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 185 days.
- Russia vs Latvia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 49 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Iranian MP tells Euronews Tehran's missiles will strike Europe if US uses its bases there (Euronews)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.