Ukraine vs Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden: Narrow victory for Ukraine after 365 d
In today's run Ukraine attack Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden; the model ends in narrow victory for ukraine after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Ukraine attack Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Narrow victory for Ukraine after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 22,721 for Ukraine and 20,089 for Poland + Estonia + Latvia +.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then contested front from day 4, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 25, then end state from day 365.
Turning points:
- Day 15: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Poland + Estonia + Latvia +: a combination of local factors.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 148,881.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 769,989 vs 373,804.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Ukraine: 33%.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.94 vs 0.75.
- Logistics (favoured Side B): Average front-line supply efficiency: 49% vs 62%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Ukraine vs Poland: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 354 days.
- Ukraine vs Romania: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 270 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.