Russia, Belarus vs Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden: Decisive victory for Russia +
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden; the model ends in decisive victory for russia + belarus after 22 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany, Sweden in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Decisive victory for Russia + Belarus after 22 simulated days (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 3,965 for Russia + Belarus and 1,340 for Poland + Estonia + Latvia +.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then contested front from day 19, then opening offensive from day 21, then end state from day 22.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
- Day 22: Turning point: Vilnius falls. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a sustained offensive.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 7,783.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 165,539 vs 37,883.
- Long-range strikes (favoured Side B): Final logistics degradation from strikes: 30% (Russia + Belarus) vs 0% (Poland + Estonia + Latvia +); interception rates 36% / 74%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side A): Average deployed combat power: 241 vs 114 model units.
- Logistics (favoured Side A): Average front-line supply efficiency: 67% vs 56%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days.
- Russia vs Estonia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 34 days.
- Russia vs Finland: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 185 days.
- Russia vs Latvia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 49 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.