Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

Ukraine vs PolandMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Ukraine attacked Poland today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 354 days.

How the two sides compare

Ukraine keeps 3.9 times as many soldiers under arms. Ukraine has 1.4 times the tanks. Their air forces are a similar size. Ukraine spends 1.4 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

UkrainePoland
677,000Active soldiers173,000
500,000Reservists37,500
1,121Tanks808
2,000Artillery700
111Combat aircraft109
60Helicopters200
$64.3bnDefence budget$46.6bn
39.0mPopulation36.4m

What the war cost

Ukraine
attacked
45,765
soldiers killed or wounded
112
tanks destroyed
60
aircraft lost
+26
areas of land gained
50%
support at home, at the end
Poland
defended
16,103
soldiers killed or wounded
65
tanks destroyed
81
aircraft lost
−26
areas of land lost
38%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Ukraine
Reservists mobilised: 771,548 vs 96,212.
02
Deployed combat power helped Ukraine
Average deployed combat power: 192 vs 58 model units.
03
Air situation helped Ukraine
Average share of air control for Ukraine: 62%.
04
Economic resilience helped Ukraine
Average economic stability index: 0.94 vs 0.74.
05
Political cohesion helped Ukraine
Average cohesion: 64% vs 62%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

Poland vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
Ukraine vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days
Poland vs Czechia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 362 days
Poland vs Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
Russia vs Poland
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
Poland vs Germany
Defender holds after 360 days
All matchups →
After 354 simulated days the conflict between Ukraine and Poland ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 45,765 (Ukraine) and 16,103 (Poland). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.