Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇺🇦 Ukraine vs 🇵🇱 PolandMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Ukraine attacked Poland today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 354 days.

How the two militaries compare

Ukraine keeps 4.5 times as many soldiers under arms. Ukraine has 1.5 times the tanks. Poland has 1.3 times the combat aircraft. Both spend about the same on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

UkrainePoland
900,000Active soldiers200,000
500,000Reservists100,000
900Tanks600
2,000Artillery700
80Combat aircraft100
60Helicopters200
$40.0bnDefence budget$40.0bn
33.0mPopulation37.0m

What the war cost

Ukraine
attacked
45,765
soldiers killed or wounded
112
tanks destroyed
60
aircraft lost
+26
areas of land gained
50%
support at home, at the end
Poland
defended
16,103
soldiers killed or wounded
65
tanks destroyed
81
aircraft lost
−26
areas of land lost
38%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Ukraine
Reservists mobilised: 771,548 vs 96,212.
02
Deployed combat power helped Ukraine
Average deployed combat power: 192 vs 58 model units.
03
Air situation helped Ukraine
Average share of air control for Ukraine: 62%.
04
Economic resilience helped Ukraine
Average economic stability index: 0.94 vs 0.74.
05
Political cohesion helped Ukraine
Average cohesion: 64% vs 62%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days
🇺🇦 Ukraine vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days
🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇨🇿 Czechia
Ceasefire, front frozen after 362 days
🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇱🇹 Lithuania
Side A achieves its objectives after 188 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇵🇱 Poland
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
🇵🇱 Poland vs 🇩🇪 Germany
Defender holds after 360 days
All matchups →
After 354 simulated days the conflict between Ukraine and Poland ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 45,765 (Ukraine) and 16,103 (Poland). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.