Russia, Belarus vs Estonia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany: Side A achieves its objectives after 5
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Estonia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany; the model ends in side a achieves its objectives after 53 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Israel’s Uvision, Estonia’s Lendurai to integrate systems for NATO military (Breaking Defense)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Estonia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Germany in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Side A achieves its objectives after 53 simulated days (capital captured). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 10,655 for Russia + Belarus and 3,136 for Estonia + Poland + Latvia +.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then contested front from day 27, then attrition phase from day 39.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
- Day 29: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a combination of local factors.
- Day 39: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Estonia + Poland + Latvia +: a combination of local factors.
- Day 53: Turning point: Vilnius falls. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Russia + Belarus: a sustained offensive.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 24,540.
- Long-range strikes (favoured Side B): Final logistics degradation from strikes: 55% (Russia + Belarus) vs 0% (Estonia + Poland + Latvia +); interception rates 36% / 80%.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 341,811 vs 103,527.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side A): Average deployed combat power: 238 vs 126 model units.
- Logistics (favoured Side A): Average front-line supply efficiency: 71% vs 61%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Poland vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 181 days.
- Russia vs Estonia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 34 days.
- Russia vs Finland: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 185 days.
- Russia vs Latvia: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 49 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Israel’s Uvision, Estonia’s Lendurai to integrate systems for NATO military (Breaking Defense)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.