Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast
Turkey vs RussiaThe Black Sea confrontation, with Georgia as the land bridge.
If Russia attacked Turkey and Georgia today, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Ceasefire, front frozen after 306 days.
How the two sides compare
Combined totals for everyone taking part on each side. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.
RussiaTurkey and Georgia
1,100,000Active soldiers392,000
2,000,000Reservists400,000
3,000Tanks2,300
5,000Artillery1,500
1,100Combat aircraft212
800Helicopters520
$130.0bnDefence budget$25.5bn
144.0mPopulation89.7m
What the war cost
Russia
attacked
117,558
soldiers killed or wounded
594
tanks destroyed
433
aircraft lost
+6
areas of land gained
29%
support at home, at the end
Turkey and Georgia
defended
23,472
soldiers killed or wounded
226
tanks destroyed
174
aircraft lost
−6
areas of land lost
47%
support at home, at the end
Who takes part
What decided it
01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 1,872,669 vs 364,972.
02
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 80%.
03
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 196 vs 100 model units.
04
Economic resilience helped Russia
Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.78.
05
Political cohesion helped Turkey and Georgia
Average cohesion: 49% vs 56%.
Think it would go differently?
This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.
Other borders in this neighbourhood
Turkey vs Bulgaria
Ceasefire, front frozen after 152 days
Russia vs Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
Russia vs Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
Russia vs Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
Russia vs Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
Russia vs Norway
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
After 306 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Turkey + Georgia ended with: Ceasefire, front frozen (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 117,558 (Russia) and 23,472 (Turkey + Georgia). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.
Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.