Warscape
Simulated matchup · a model, not a forecast

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇦🇿 AzerbaijanMilitary comparison, and what happens if they fight

If Russia attacked Azerbaijan today, with no allies joining on either side, this is what the WARSCAPE engine produced: Defender holds after 365 days.

How the two militaries compare

Russia keeps 17 times as many soldiers under arms. Russia has 6.0 times the tanks. Russia has 28 times the combat aircraft. Russia spends 37 times as much on defence. Public, country-level figures from the data snapshot the run was pinned to (2026.09). See data sources for where each number comes from.

RussiaAzerbaijan
1,100,000Active soldiers65,000
2,000,000Reservists300,000
3,000Tanks500
5,000Artillery600
1,100Combat aircraft40
800Helicopters60
$130.0bnDefence budget$3.5bn
144.0mPopulation10.2m

What the war cost

Russia
attacked
31,270
soldiers killed or wounded
126
tanks destroyed
444
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
45%
support at home, at the end
Azerbaijan
defended
6,488
soldiers killed or wounded
31
tanks destroyed
33
aircraft lost
0
land changed hands
59%
support at home, at the end

What decided it

01
Mobilisation helped Russia
Reservists mobilised: 2,075,497 vs 259,073.
02
Deployed combat power helped Russia
Average deployed combat power: 176 vs 24 model units.
03
Air situation helped Russia
Average share of air control for Russia: 86%.
04
Political cohesion helped Azerbaijan
Average cohesion: 58% vs 68%.
05
Logistics helped Azerbaijan
Average front-line supply efficiency: 19% vs 23%.
Think it would go differently?

This run assumed no allies, winter, full mobilization for the attacker and partial for the defender, and no nuclear weapons. Change any of that and watch it play out day by day on the map.

Other borders in this neighbourhood

🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇧🇾 Belarus
Ceasefire, front frozen after 151 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇪🇪 Estonia
Side A achieves its objectives after 34 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇫🇮 Finland
Side A achieves its objectives after 185 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇱🇻 Latvia
Side A achieves its objectives after 49 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇳🇴 Norway
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
🇷🇺 Russia vs 🇵🇱 Poland
Partial objective achieved after 365 days
All matchups →
After 365 simulated days the conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan ended with: Defender holds (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 31,270 (Russia) and 6,488 (Azerbaijan). This page reports one seeded run of a model on public, aggregate data. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. No operational, classified or real-time information is used.