Ukraine vs United States, Russia: Victory for United States + Russia after 186 days
In today's run Ukraine attack United States, Russia; the model ends in victory for united states + russia after 186 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- US approves sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine (BBC News · Europe)
- US greenlights 500 Patriot missiles for Ukraine, with $2.1 billion to be paid by allies (Breaking Defense)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Ukraine attack United States, Russia in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States participates, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Victory for United States + Russia after 186 simulated days (prolonged stalemate). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 15,595 for Ukraine and 58,609 for United States + Russia.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then contested front from day 21, then attrition phase from day 22, then stalemate from day 42.
Turning points:
- Day 44: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Russia: a combination of local factors.
- Day 54: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Russia: a combination of local factors.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 749,892.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 132 vs 726 model units.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Ukraine: 16%.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side B): Reservists mobilised: 644,759 vs 1,432,490.
- Long-range strikes (favoured Side B): Final logistics degradation from strikes: 12% (Ukraine) vs 0% (United States + Russia); interception rates 0% / 0%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Russia vs Ukraine: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 304 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- US approves sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine (BBC News · Europe)
- US greenlights 500 Patriot missiles for Ukraine, with $2.1 billion to be paid by allies (Breaking Defense)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.