Ukraine vs United States, Russia: Decisive victory for United States + Russia after 231 days
In today's run Ukraine attack United States, Russia; the model ends in decisive victory for united states + russia after 231 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Ukraine’s Zelenskyy praises US over $2.1bn Patriot missile deal but warns it could take years (The Guardian · World)
- US approves sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine (BBC News)
- US greenlights $2.1bn Patriot missile sale to Ukraine (Al Jazeera)
- US greenlights 500 Patriot missiles for Ukraine, with $2.1 billion to be paid by allies (Breaking Defense)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Ukraine attack United States, Russia in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States participates, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Decisive victory for United States + Russia after 231 simulated days (attacker abandons the campaign). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 19,898 for Ukraine and 73,973 for United States + Russia.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then contested front from day 49, then attrition phase from day 56.
Turning points:
- Day 205: Turning point: Supply crisis for United States + Russia. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward United States + Russia: overextended supply lines.
What decided it
- Sea & air lift (favoured Side B): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 0 vs 882,567.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Ukraine: 17%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 165 vs 716 model units.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side B): Reservists mobilised: 711,846 vs 1,702,319.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side A): Average cohesion: 65% vs 53%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Russia vs Ukraine: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 304 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Ukraine’s Zelenskyy praises US over $2.1bn Patriot missile deal but warns it could take years (The Guardian · World)
- US approves sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine (BBC News)
- US greenlights $2.1bn Patriot missile sale to Ukraine (Al Jazeera)
- US greenlights 500 Patriot missiles for Ukraine, with $2.1 billion to be paid by allies (Breaking Defense)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.