Finland vs Ukraine, Russia: Attacker withdraws after 61 days
In today's run Finland attack Ukraine, Russia; the model ends in attacker withdraws after 61 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Finland’s defense minister talks NATO, Ukraine and fishing (Defense News)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Finland attack Ukraine, Russia in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Attacker withdraws after 61 simulated days (attacker abandons the campaign). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 259 for Finland and 8,371 for Ukraine + Russia.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then contested front from day 5, then counteroffensive from day 6, then negotiations from day 18, then counteroffensive from day 38.
Turning points:
- Day 15: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Ukraine + Russia: a combination of local factors.
What decided it
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 16 vs 531 model units.
- Mobilisation (favoured Side B): Reservists mobilised: 31,405 vs 558,257.
- Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Finland: 15%.
- Long-range strikes (favoured Side B): Final logistics degradation from strikes: 43% (Finland) vs 0% (Ukraine + Russia); interception rates 30% / 78%.
- Logistics (favoured Side A): Average front-line supply efficiency: 47% vs 28%.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Russia vs Finland: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 185 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Finland’s defense minister talks NATO, Ukraine and fishing (Defense News)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.