Warscape
Daily briefing·· from today's news

Russia, Belarus vs United States: Narrow victory for Russia + Belarus after 365 days

In today's run Russia, Belarus attack United States; the model ends in narrow victory for russia + belarus after 365 days.

Attacks
Russia + Belarus
Defends
United States
Outcome
Narrow victory for Russia + Belarus
Length
365 days

What happened today

Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):

Those stories name the sides in today's run.

The scenario we ran

Russia, Belarus attack United States in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States participates, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.

How the model played it out

War timeline · 365 days
Stalemate
A
B
DAY 1DAY 365
Phases are the engine's own labels. Lanes show each side's operational tempo: bright = attacking, dim = pausing or defending.
Losses within the model · aggregate
Russia + Belarus
United States
0
Personnel
0
0
Tanks
0
1,422
Aircraft
1,661
0
Artillery
0
Territory: Russia + Belarus 0 cells · United States 0 cells. Cohesion at the end: 53% vs 20%.

Result: Narrow victory for Russia + Belarus after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 0 for Russia + Belarus and 0 for United States.

The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then end state from day 365.

Turning points:

  • The engine detected no turning points in this run.

What decided it

What decided it · separation between the sides
◀ favours Russia + Belarusfavours United States ▶
Sea & air lift
636,030 vs 0.
Deployed combat power
110 vs 780 model units.
Air situation
18%.
Mobilisation
2,497,288 vs 853,051.
Economic resilience
0.95 vs 0.75.
Political cohesion
59% vs 39%.
Bar length is the engine's normalised difference on that factor over the whole war; direction shows who it favoured.
Side A objectives · Russia + Belarus
Capture the capital of United States0%
Secure a border corridor inside United States0%
Reduce opposing deployed combat capacity below 50%0%
Side B objectives · United States
Retain at least 90% of pre-war territoryachieved
Reduce the attacker's offensive capacity below 55%0%
Restore pre-war bordersachieved
  • Sea & air lift (favoured Side A): Troops brought into the theatre by lift: 636,030 vs 0.
  • Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 110 vs 780 model units.
  • Air situation (favoured Side B): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 18%.
  • Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,497,288 vs 853,051.
  • Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.95 vs 0.75.

Try it yourself

Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.

Sources and limits

This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.

Model-generated simulation on public, country-level data. Not a prediction. Headlines are linked and summarised, never reproduced. Assembled from the engine's report.
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