Russia, Belarus vs Ukraine: Defender holds after 365 days

Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):

• Russia’s war on Ukraine ‘must be brought to an end’, Zelenskyy says (Al Jazeera)

Those stories name the sides in today's run.

Russia, Belarus attack Ukraine in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.

Result: Defender holds after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 117,813 for Russia + Belarus and 56,669 for Ukraine.

The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then end state from day 365.

Turning points:

• The engine detected no turning points in this run.

• Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,479,238 vs 469,194.
• Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 79%.
• Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 59% vs 82%.
• Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 233 vs 323 model units.
• Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.94.

WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:

• Ukraine vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days.
• Russia vs Ukraine: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 304 days.

Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.

• Russia’s war on Ukraine ‘must be brought to an end’, Zelenskyy says (Al Jazeera)

This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.