Russia vs Finland, Sweden, Norway: Partial objective achieved after 365 days
In today's run Russia attack Finland, Sweden, Norway; the model ends in partial objective achieved after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Trump’s pause on Russia sanctions is ‘reward’ for Putin, Zelenskyy says (The Guardian · World)
- St Petersburg under attack from Ukrainian drone swarm (Al Jazeera)
- Saudi-led forces try to break Houthi siege of Taiz with airstrikes (Al Jazeera)
- Iran war live: Two killed in Saudi helicopter crash; drones target Riyadh (Al Jazeera)
- Mimicking populists will not ease cost of living or boost productivity, Mathias Cormann warns (The Guardian · World)
Nothing in the feeds mapped onto a scenario the engine can stage, so today's run is the evergreen scenario The northern flank.
The scenario we ran
Russia attack Finland, Sweden, Norway in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Partial objective achieved after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 41,812 for Russia and 7,007 for Finland + Sweden + Norway.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then opening offensive from day 4, then contested front from day 10, then attrition phase from day 21, then stalemate from day 25.
Turning points:
- Day 12: Turning point: a shift in momentum. This moment mattered because momentum shifted durably toward Finland + Sweden + Norway: a combination of local factors.
What decided it
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,255,163 vs 254,183.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side A): Average deployed combat power: 264 vs 37 model units.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Russia: 79%.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 63% vs 90%.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.94.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Russia vs Finland: the model ended that one in side a achieves its objectives after 185 days.
- Russia vs Norway: the model ended that one in partial objective achieved after 365 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Trump’s pause on Russia sanctions is ‘reward’ for Putin, Zelenskyy says (The Guardian · World)
- St Petersburg under attack from Ukrainian drone swarm (Al Jazeera)
- Saudi-led forces try to break Houthi siege of Taiz with airstrikes (Al Jazeera)
- Iran war live: Two killed in Saudi helicopter crash; drones target Riyadh (Al Jazeera)
- Mimicking populists will not ease cost of living or boost productivity, Mathias Cormann warns (The Guardian · World)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.