Russia, Belarus vs Ukraine: Defender holds after 365 days
In today's run Russia, Belarus attack Ukraine; the model ends in defender holds after 365 days.
What happened today
Today's defence and geopolitics headlines, in the outlets' own words (linked):
- Russia and Ukraine trade strikes as Trump ‘energy ceasefire’ collapses (The Guardian · World)
- Watch: What does Starlink have to do with the Ukraine-Russia war? (BBC News)
Those stories name the sides in today's run.
The scenario we ran
Russia, Belarus attack Ukraine in autumn, mobilization full / partial, the United States stays out, nuclear weapons disabled, 365-day limit. Everything else is the engine's realistic default.
How the model played it out
Result: Defender holds after 365 simulated days (duration limit reached). Aggregate personnel losses within the model: 77,445 for Russia + Belarus and 50,551 for Ukraine.
The war moved through initial strike from day 1, then rapid mobilization from day 3, then attrition phase from day 8, then stalemate from day 21, then end state from day 365.
Turning points:
- The engine detected no turning points in this run.
What decided it
- Mobilisation (favoured Side A): Reservists mobilised: 2,262,543 vs 374,775.
- Air situation (favoured Side A): Average share of air control for Russia + Belarus: 78%.
- Political cohesion (favoured Side B): Average cohesion: 59% vs 78%.
- Deployed combat power (favoured Side B): Average deployed combat power: 199 vs 274 model units.
- Economic resilience (favoured Side A): Average economic stability index: 0.96 vs 0.94.
The same countries, one on one
WARSCAPE keeps a permanent page for every land border in Europe, each holding its own simulated war:
- Ukraine vs Belarus: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 145 days.
- Russia vs Ukraine: the model ended that one in ceasefire, front frozen after 304 days.
Try it yourself
Open the exact run and scrub the timeline, ask why at any event, or branch an alternate timeline from a turning point. Or change one assumption in the builder and run it again.
Sources and limits
- Russia and Ukraine trade strikes as Trump ‘energy ceasefire’ collapses (The Guardian · World)
- Watch: What does Starlink have to do with the Ukraine-Russia war? (BBC News)
This is a model result on public, aggregate, country-level data under the stated assumptions. It is not a prediction, and no operational information is used.